At the close of February 21, 2023, the price of some types of natural rubber rose to 13625 yuan per ton. Although there is still a distance from the high point of more than 14000 yuan on January 31, the high price is still a heavy burden on the tire enterprises.
At present, the operating rate of many tire enterprises has recovered to more than 80%. Among them, the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong Province reached 67.23% and 72.02%, not only higher than that of the same period last year, but also comparable to the operating level after the 2021 holiday. Especially considering that most of the increase in the operating rate in 2021 is supported by the original parts market, it is surprising that the tire enterprises still have a high operating rate in spite of the heavy truck sales. Of course, it has also triggered concerns about tire prices in more industries - with the increase of operating rate, more consumption of natural rubber is inevitable. At present, the price of some types of natural rubber has exceeded 13500 yuan per ton. If the consumption of natural rubber continues to accelerate, I'm afraid that the price rise tide that has just stopped for a few days will "revive" again!
However, many insiders in the industry believe that such concerns are premature. In their view, the increase in the operating rate after the holiday is only in line with the operating rules of tire factories over the years. "If you look at the good news of each ordering conference, you can find that the current operating rate is very high in water content."
Since the end of January 2023, the tire industry has been full of various enterprises, and the ordering conferences of various brands, and the dealers' orders of tens of thousands of times have indeed brought a pile of orders that the tire factory has not seen for a long time, supporting the continuous rise of the operating rate of the tire factory. Although these orders do not mean the real situation of the market, it cannot be denied that there are some dealers and orderers' judgments about the market in 2023 in these orders - the digestion capacity is recovering.
The best evidence in China is the institutional tire inventory data. According to agency data, as of the week of February 16, 2023, the inventory days of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires in Shandong were 35.75 days and 36.95 days respectively, and the 40-day high inventory situation in the past year has been effectively improved. This is why dealers and wholesalers actively unpacked and purchased a large number of tires at the ordering conference from the end of January to the beginning of February. The speed of inventory flow is accelerating. If you don't buy now, you won't have to sell in the future.
Therefore, although the rapid recovery of the current tire factory operating rate does contain the reason for the explosion of orders, the fundamental driving force is the gradual recovery of the market. Therefore, the water content of the current high-start data is low, but this also means that the solid high production capacity will further stimulate the demand for natural rubber, and the price of natural rubber will rise sharply in the current cutting period. After all, before the holiday, the tire enterprises that did not expect such a big sale in the ordering conference did not stock too many raw materials.
Facing the higher demand for natural rubber after a large number of tire orders hit, it is expected that the price of natural rubber will return to the ceiling of 14000 yuan per ton in a short time. At this time, looking at the order delivered to the salesperson, the tire manufacturer was more frantic. In order to retain profits, it is expected that in recent days, the tire industry will usher in the craziest moment of the first wave of price rise in 2023!
However, according to the current market feedback, the vast majority of terminal retailers are not satisfied with the increase in tire prices. For them, the current market situation is far from returning to the "craziness" built in the dealer's mind. Although there are consumers coming and going in the passenger car tire stores in the city, the demand for replacing large tires has not improved dramatically. As not all construction sites are under construction at present, the demand for transportation and construction has not been fully restored.
It is expected that in order to stimulate the market to continue to purchase, the tire enterprises will continue to update the insurance cover and continue to issue the price increase notice, and the price increase in the beginning of 2023 will be higher and higher.
Disclaimer: The image materials and articles of this platform are from the network, so the copyright belongs to the original author. If it infringes your copyright and interests, please contact us, we apologize and delete it quickly. Source: tire business
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