The epidemic broke out in Wuhan in December 2019, and in December 2022, it will take three years to fight. Many control measures have been added to prevent and control the epidemic in China. A series of measures, such as closing villages, roads, auto parts cities and tire stores, have had a great impact on the tire market. In the past three years, it has been difficult to do business from tire enterprises to tire stores. Fortunately, we have finally seen the dawn!
The policy of easing the epidemic situation has been set, and the tire market will continue to improve.
Heavy truck sales rebounded and the original equipment market was bullish
According to online data, in the past November, China's heavy truck market sold about 45000 vehicles (invoicing caliber, including exports and new energy), down 7% month on month, 12% less than 51100 vehicles in the same period last year, a net decrease of more than 6100 vehicles. In 2022, the sales of heavy trucks will not rise, and the "19 consecutive declines" will be unprecedented!
The sales volume of heavy trucks has fallen to the bottom. It is impolite to say that the sales volume of heavy trucks is still at the bottom, and the sales volume is bound to rebound next year! Not only that, truck manufacturers are also optimistic about the 2023 heavy truck market!
CNHTC: On November 12, 2022, on the investor relations platform, CNHTC said that the worst moment of the current market has passed. With the steady development of the economy, the heavy truck market will gradually recover. In other words, CNHTC believes that the heavy truck market in 2023 will be better than that in 2022! FAW Jiefang: It is reported that Ji Yizhi, the deputy general manager of FAW Jiefang, said that many adverse factors were concentrated in this year, and the sales of the whole medium and heavy truck industry declined precipitously. However, truck is a cyclical industry. The trend in the next few years should be better. The heavy truck market next year should be better than this year. Foton Automobile: According to public information, Foton Automobile predicts that heavy trucks will grow 15-20% year on year in 2023!
The recovery of heavy truck sales is bound to drive the original tire market. After the epidemic situation gives way, the freight and passenger markets are bound to rise. The tire replacement market may usher in a small climax!
Replace the market and go all the way
How about the transportation industry in 2022? Data shows that in November 2022, the average daily vehicle freight flow index of highway freight transportation in the country decreased by 25.6% year on year; The daily average value of railway freight decreased by 4.3% compared with the same period last year; Container throughput dropped 6.9% year on year!
On December 7, 2022, the Ministry of Transport issued the Notice on the Guidelines for the Prevention and Control of COVID-19 at Passenger City Stations and Transportation Vehicles (10th Edition), which shows that the requirements for cross regional travelers to check the negative certificate of nucleic acid testing, health code and "landing inspection" have been deleted; Cancel the registration requirements for passenger information of road passenger transport; Wait for a series of good news. In other words, cross regional circulation is no longer subject to any obstacles!
With the continuous development of national infrastructure and the prospect of economic recovery, freight and passenger transport are bound to show an upward trend!
The export market continues to grow
In the past two years, the domestic tire market has been declining, and a large part of tire enterprises rely on exports for survival!
Stable shipping costs: Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the growth of shipping demand, port congestion, poor logistics and other factors caused the international container shipping costs to rise for a time! Affected by the soaring sea freight costs, many tire enterprises will not export smoothly in 2021.
Since this year, ocean freight has begun to recover. The data shows that in November 2022, the Shanghai export container freight index closed at 1306.84, continuing the downward trend since the third quarter. Shipping costs fell back, and the export data of Chinese tire enterprises gradually improved.
The export data is positive: Dongying Customs data shows that in the first three quarters of 2022, the total import and export value of Dongying's goods trade is 197.65 billion yuan, an increase of 33.5% over the same period last year, of which the export value is 54.99 billion yuan, an increase of 38.6%; Imports were 142.66 billion yuan, up 31.7%. In the first three quarters, Dongying exported 17.58 billion yuan of new pneumatic rubber tires, an increase of 12.8%, accounting for 32% of the city's total export value.
The tire man is coming in spring?
The above may be more about the heavy truck tire market. In fact, the passenger car tire market is the same. With the recovery of the market and economy, the tire market is bound to get better. In this case, many tyre workers actively plan for business. Or additional investment, or continue to open stores, or sufficient stock. Behind this is the tire people who have suppressed their emotions for three years. They think that they will survive until this day and usher in the spring of the industry!
Darkness before dawn
Some insiders analyzed the industry in this way. He said: "I think it is good that economic activities will generally return to normal in the second half of next year.". Previously, the impact of the epidemic on economic activities was mainly due to large-scale containment. With the optimization of epidemic prevention measures, containment will be greatly reduced. The main impact of the epidemic on economic activities is people's fear of infection. After liberalization, if the number of infected people including asymptomatic people reaches 5 to 10 million every day, the risk of infection is high when going out to engage in various commercial activities. At this time, not everyone is willing to go out and engage in normal business activities until this wave of infection has completely passed.
At present, the number of people infected in China is very small. If more than one billion people were infected with 70%, almost one billion people would be infected. The number of people infected is much smaller than this magnitude. The process of infection spread in such a wide range cannot be predicted by any expert who can control it. Only after the darkest hour can we welcome the dawn!
Disclaimer: The image materials and articles of this platform are from the network, so the copyright belongs to the original author. If it infringes your copyright and interests, please contact us, and we apologize and delete them quickly. Source: Tire World Network
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