The Xinhua Hainan Agricultural Reclamation-Natural Rubber Series Price Index shows that from June 28 to July 4, 2022, the overall price of natural rubber rose slightly.
On the market demand side, Longzhong Information data shows that as of June 30, 2022, the operating rate of China's all-steel tire sample enterprises was 62.45%, down 0.01 percentage points from the previous month and up 16.76 percentage points year-on-year; semi-steel tire sample enterprises The operating rate was 66.67%, down 0.19 percentage points month-on-month and up 30.31 percentage points year-on-year.
Wang Kaifu, a senior natural rubber analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the current terminal demand is recovering slowly, and the finished product inventory of tire companies remains at a high level. Under multiple pressures, some companies have maintenance plans in the near future, which will cause a certain drag on the operating rate of the overall sample companies. It is expected that the next cycle The operating rate of tire sample companies may still be expected to decline.
On the supply side, the production areas in Southeast Asia are in the peak production season, and the output of raw materials is increasing rapidly; the domestic output in Banna, Yunnan is normal; the output of raw materials in Hainan is gradually increasing. Since the rubber trees in some areas are still in the stage of new leaf growth, full cutting may be delayed to 7. mid-month.
In terms of automobiles, the latest data released by the first commercial vehicle network shows that my country's heavy truck market sold about 53,000 units (invoicing caliber), a slight increase of 8% from May this year, and a decrease of 66% from the same period last year. In the first half of 2022, the heavy truck market sold a total of 378,000 units, down 64% from the same period last year. Under the combined influence of factors such as the epidemic, high inventory pressure in the industry, and high oil prices, the performance of the heavy truck market is relatively sluggish.
Comprehensive analysis, on the supply side, in July, the production areas entered the peak season for rubber tapping, and the output of upstream raw materials gradually increased. With the improvement of the domestic economic situation, the production and sales of automobiles and the demand for tires on the downstream demand side may increase significantly, but the negative disturbance of the macro market may make natural Rubber prices are running weakly in the short term.
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